Harnessing the Power of Waves: Evaluating the development of Morlais renewable tidal energy

Context for renewable tidal energy demonstration project

Morlais is a tidal power renewable energy demonstration project off Holy Island, Anglesey, in North Wales. Menter Môn Morlais, is leading this project to develop tidal stream capacity, which has the potential to generate up to 240MW of low-carbon clean electricity. The Morlais Demonstration Zone (MDZ) is a 35km2 sea of seabed off the coast of Anglesey, which has been leased on a 45-year term by the Crown Estate. The MDZ will provide a fully consented tidal technology demonstration zone with communal infrastructure, including export cables and sub-stations. The intent is to attract tidal technology developers from around the world to test and develop their technology. This project has been broken down into several stages, and Wavehill has been involved in providing a range of independent research and evaluations at each stage of development.

Phase One: Consent and Development (Evaluation undertaken 2022-23)

The first stage of the project focused on securing the necessary consent for the development of Morlais. This phase was crucial in laying the foundations for the subsequent stages of this project. The focus was on ensuring that all regulatory and environmental considerations were comprehensively addressed. As part of the consenting process, an extensive Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was conducted to evaluate potential impacts during the construction, operation, and decommissioning phases.

Marine Characterisation Research Project (MCRP)

The project is committed to protecting and safeguarding the natural environment and has, in turn, developed a research and development project, the Marine Characterisation Research Project (MCRP).  This project has sought to generate new data on the interaction between tidal stream devices and the natural environment. It undertook in-depth research to understand and better support the safe implementation of the tidal devices in the MDZ whilst scaling this to commercial levels.

Phase Two: Morlais Infrastructure Project (Evaluation undertaken 2023-24)

This second phase built on the planning consents secured during the first phase to deliver the infrastructure required for a fully operational tidal energy generation zone. With £31 million of funding to develop and construct the required infrastructure, which in turn will support the commercial deployment of tidal turbines at the Morlais Demonstration Zone.

The Infrastructure Project has delivered both civil works and offshore Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) works over a total of seven work packages. This secured the landfall infrastructure, technology developer building, two fully lined cable ducts, transition pits and cable routing, and substation to enable connection to the Distribution Network Operator (DNO), managed by Scottish Power (SPEN).

The approach undertaken by Wavehill

Consent and Development Phase

As part of this first phase of work, Wavehill undertook an evaluation to test the extent to which the scheme had enabled consent and development activities. We used a theory of change as well as mixed-method approaches, including:

• Evaluation Framework. We designed a bespoke Evaluation Framework to support the monitoring and analysis set out in the Morlais Consent and Development programme.

• Engagement with key stakeholders and partners. The evaluation team gathered primary data through interviews with internal and external stakeholders, technology developers, Isle of Anglesey Council, Bangor University, and other key stakeholders

• Desk-based research. We reviewed the thorough and well-compiled monitoring information from the programme. In addition, relevant literature and analysis of policies and strategies at Welsh Government and UK level was undertaken.

• Supply chain survey. This was used to test the extent to which the scheme had brought new and identified future opportunities as the project moved into subsequent phases.

MCRP

Wavehill undertook an evaluation to assess how the MCRP had met its high-level objectives in developing and delivering over 20 different work packages associated with this project. These work packages aim to identify and close the knowledge gaps in the available data emerging from the interaction between the tidal turbines and the natural environment. As part of our evaluation, we undertook consultation with leading experts across the marine and tidal-energy sector. This included leading marine mammal behavioural experts at the Sea Mammal Research Unit in St. Andrews, Marine Scotland, tidal turbine developers, NRW, MarineSpace, Juno Energy, and data science specialists at Bangor and Swansea Universities.

The aim was to test the usefulness and impacts of the over 20 research workstreams delivered under the project. In addition, the evaluation sought to understand the local, national, and global impacts on developing the tidal stream industry in Wales.

Infrastructure Phase

In the second phase of the project, Wavehill undertook a Summative Assessment focused on the activities undertaken to prepare the Morlais site for the installation of infrastructure in the MDZ. It measured progress against programme objectives, such as how it has delivered contracts to enable the deployment of tidal turbines for a minimum of two tidal stream developments, with a focus on contracts secured for onshore civil works and Horizontal Drilling works.

Our approach also assessed ongoing activities to support developing the capacity of the local supply chain and skills and training opportunities in North Wales to further develop the Welsh tidal stream market.

The final report includes an Impact Framework and a series of recommendations for the next phase (Operation) of the project up to 2029.

Impact of evaluations

Each of the evaluations formed an independent review of project performance and progress against wider Morlais project objectives. We presented our findings in two comprehensive reports, covering the two main phases of the programme. The reports set out evidence to assess the following:

• Relevance and consistency: exploring the continued relevance and consistency of the project in light of contextual changes, such as shifts in policy, economic circumstances, and technological advancements.

• Progress against contractual targets: setting out project progress against contractual targets, over/under performance, and projected lifetime results at project closure.

• Experience of delivering and managing the project: outlining the practical experience of implementing and managing the project, lessons learned and evidence of best practice which can be applied to the delivery of other projects.

• Impact attributable to the project: demonstrating the impacts attributable to the project, capturing those that were intended, actual and wider outcomes which have provided added value to the wider marine energy sector.

• Cost-effectiveness and value for money: a qualitative assessment of cost-effectiveness and value for money based on the balance of quantified costs and benefits weighted against intended and unintended impacts.

The primary and secondary data gathered across the two phases was analysed and reviewed to provide the evidence needed to inform the two summative assessment reports, and ultimately develop practical recommendations to support the Welsh Government and NRW in ongoing work to develop their processes to enable future tidal energy schemes in Wales.