Assessing the impact of ERDF business support in Wales

The evaluation examined how support for research and innovation, entrepreneurship, SME competitiveness, and digital adoption contributed to business growth, innovation activity, exports, and employment during a period shaped by Brexit, COVID-19, and rising inflation.

The evaluation used a combination quantitative and qualitative evidence to understand both delivery and impact. This included a survey of over 1,000 supported businesses to gain statistically robust insights into impacts as well as a counterfactual impact analysis using firm-level data to show the extent to which change could be attributed to the programme. This involved quantitative modelling, drawing on data gathered through the ONS Secure Research Services database to track change in turnover, employment and productivity over time. Stakeholder consultations and in depth interviews with businesses were also used to form case studies to complement the impact assessment.

The evaluation (published here) provided a robust evidence base on business support across Wales during a period of economic disruption and transition. Its findings informed discussion around future investment, the coordination of business support services, and the continued alignment of innovation, digital adoption, and economic development activity across Wales.